LECTURE 1 - THE HISTORY OF COMPUTERS
PART 4 - "FUTURE HISTORY": THE FUTURE OF COMPUTING
..the era 1984-2005 is "just getting faster" with few new ideas....
By 1984, the model for personal computing had already been established. In that year, the Apple Macintosh already used a graphical windows/menuing interface, and had programs for bitmap drawing (MacPaint), vector drawing (MacDraw), spreadsheets (Excel) and other programs commonly found on computers today. While the Internet was not available, the Macintosh already had a built-in network for communication and high-speed printing (AppleTalk).
The change in computing between 1984 and the 2000s has been a matter of speed - the same programs run faster and faster without major conceptual breakthroughs.
Moore's Law - (actually an observation, not a law) - the complexity of computer chips doubles every 18 months. This trend to greater complexity and greate speed has held up since the 1960s. However, it is likely that Moore's "Law" will fail for personal computers in the next few years as we reach the limits of silicon-based computing technology.
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| A graphic of rising computer chip complexity, showing a doubling of complexity every 1.5 years. | A graph from Tom's Hardware guide, showing that computers speeds peaked in 2004, and have actually FALLEN since that time. The reason: too much waste heat is being produced by power-hungry chips (click image for article on the subject) |
Significant changes in personal computers since 1984
What will happen next?
Computer may be a nearly mature technology. If so, the next 20 years will look a lot like today - computers will become somewhat faster and smaller, but will operate in 2027 the same way the do in 2007. Such a slowing and maturing is typical of ALL technology.
A Grim vision of a techno-future, 2030
"...Information
chips implanted in the brain. Electromagnetic pulse weapons. The middle classes
becoming revolutionary, taking on the role of Marx's proletariat. The population
of countries in the Middle East increasing by 132%, while Europe's drops as
fertility falls. "Flashmobs" - groups rapidly mobilised by criminal gangs or
terrorists groups.This is the world in 30 years' time envisaged by a Ministry of
Defence team responsible for painting a picture of the "future strategic
context" likely to face Britain's armed forces..."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2007/apr/09/frontpagenews.news
Future trends predicted
1. Neiman-Marcus "kitchen PC"
- 1969
The Kitchen Computer was featured in the 1969 Neiman Marcus catalog as a $10,600 tool for housewives to store and retrieve recipes. Unfortunately, the user interface was only binary lights and switches. There is no evidence that any Kitchen Computer was ever sold. Inside was a standard Honeywell 316 minicomputer, billed as the first 16-bit machine at that price from a major computer manufacturer.
| Memory Type: | Core | Speed: | 0.6 MHz |
| Memory Size: | 16K | Cost: | $10,600 |
| Memory Width: | (16-bit) |
Neiman-Marcus robot blurb - 2003
The ultimate fantasy gift -- guaranteed to entertain your friends and even
interact with them. This
year's His & Hers gift is an actual extra "His & Her." This
pair of adult-size, interactive, remote controlled and multifunctional robots
will be the life of any party. They were designed and built by International
Robotics and feature on-board computers. The "His" Robot is designed
to respond empathetically to humans and features programmable technology that
will help him evolve his personality to suit your preferences and input. The
"Her" Robot has a multicolor moving message display that can be re-
programmed frequently from a laptop. Both Robots stand almost six feet tall.
($400,000.00/pair, page 23)
Robotics as the "next revolution"
But...maybe not