MS130 - Biology
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Pete Markiewicz
Week 08
Web links week 08 - Human and cultural ecology
HUMAN AND CULTURAL ECOLOGY
The study of human civilizations and cultures from an
ecological perspective.
Ozymandias
Percy Bysshe Shelley
I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed:
And on the pedestal these words appear:
"My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!"
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.
|
The full story of Easter Island - when civilization meets carrying
capacity
http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2003/easterislandtrans.shtml
MALTHUSIAN CYCLES IN HUMAN HISTORY - "HUMAN ECOLOGY"
Theory of civilization's collapse (at least partly ecological in nature)
Civilizations respond to overshoot not by "powering down" but by over-complexification,
with diminishing returns which ultimately become negative
Theory of marginal productivity (Tainter) - as a new technology or
resource is exploited, there are diminishing returns for ever-increasing levels
of investment. To keep returns constant, there is must be a constant increase in
complexity. If returns fall dramatically below investment, there is a potential
for collapse of the complex technology, resource, or social system
"...As a society increases in complexity, it
expands investment in such things as resource production, information
processing, administration, and defense. The benefit/cost curve for these
expenditures may at first increase favorably, as the most simple, general, and
inexpensive solutions are adopted (a phase not shown on this chart). Yet as a
society encounters new stresses, and inexpensive solutions no longer suffice,
its evolution proceeds in a more costly direction. Ultimately a growing society
reaches a point where continued investment in complexity yields higher returns,
but at a declining marginal rate. At a point such as B1, C1 on this chart a
society has entered the phase where it starts to become vulnerable to
collapse...(Tainter, 1988)
A sample "Tainter curve" for oil used by industrial civilization
- Easily discovered and used oil spurs initial industrial
development
- Oil becomes progressively more difficult to find, lower quality
- Society becomes more complex - using more technology to recover
marginal oil
- Society exploits ever more marginal oil reserves, requiring even
more complexity
- Ultimately, complexity becomes so great that it uses more energy
than is recovered from marginal oil finds
- Society is vulnerable to an "oil crash" and collapse
Complexity and energy in human ecology
White’s law, a widely accepted principle in human ecology, holds that the
level of economic development in a society is measured by the energy per capita
it produces and uses. Since the energy per capita of any society is determined
by its access to concentrated energy resources - the maximum level of economic
development possible for a society is measured by the abundance and
concentration of energy resources to which it has access.
Energy net return on energy invested (ENROEI) as increasingly marginal
reserves are used
- Collect natural seepage oozing on ground - very cheap to collect,
almost 100% energy yield
- Drilling on land into pressurized oil deposits - 200-1000 units
of energy received for every unit expended in extraction, only simple oil
rigs needed
- Drilling into very deep, difficult to extract deposits on land -
100 units of energy received for every unit expended in extraction, each oil
rig costs tens of millions of dollars to set up
- Drilling into shallow-water oceanic deposits - 50 units of energy
received for every unit expended in extraciton
- Drilling into ultra-deep oceanic deposits - 5 units of energy
received for
every unit expended in extraction, oil platforms cost more than $1 billion
to manufacture
- Tar sands - 3 units of energy received for every two units expended in
extraction, natural gas needed to heat tar sands, huge amounts of fresh
water needed for extraction
- Oil shale - cost to extract nearly equals energy yield,
giant heaters must warm ground to "cook" oil
- BioDiesel - cost to make may exceed energy generated (see below)
Evidence of human civilization following a boom/bust wave due to reaching
carrying capacity and/or resource depletion after a "population boom"
The collapse of "classic" civilizations (partly due to
ecological, resource-related environmental issues)
http://www.learner.org/exhibits/collapse/index.html
More world civilizations that have collapsed (many due to ecological
"overshoot")
Collapse of industrial civilization
EFFECTS OF HUMAN ACTIVITY ON ECOSYSTEMS
Economic growth - an exponential curve caused by:
- Increasing population
- Increasing per-capita energy use
Why humans impact ecological systems (out of proportion to other animals)
- Rapid population expansion caused by better food, disease control
- Cultural attitudes to the environment (environment something to
be used for the betterment o the human condition)
- Technology (more energy used per individual, access to resources
impossible for other animals)
Ecological/environmental forces believed to be factors in the collapse of civilizations
- Resource depletion (food, water)
- Reduction of bio-diversity (also depletes food supply)
- Epidemics (due to overcrowding at high population densities
- Toxic waste products build up in environment (biological and
technological waster)
- Environmental change affecting food supply
Not a new thing....
THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERSHOOT - POPULATION GROWTH
Population growth
THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERSHOOT - RESOURCE DEPLETION
- Limited supply of metals may not be enough for all of Earth's
inhabitants
"...If all nations were to use the
same services enjoyed in developed nations, even the full extraction of
metals from the Earth's crust and extensive recycling may not be enough
to meet metal demands in the future, according to a new study..."
http://www.livescience.com/othernews/060119_scarce_metals.html
- Fresh water is a finite resource (good "cost per gallon" comparison)
"...Global sales of bottled water last year
reached $100 billion. By contrast, only $10 billion a year would be required
to meet the UN goal of providing safe drinking water by 2015 to half of the
1.1 billion people who now lack it..1.5 million
barrels of crude oil are required to produce the 2.7 million tons of plastic
used to bottle water annually..."
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0322/p20s01-sten.html
- Reduction of available fresh water through over-pumping of ground
aquifiers ("mining water")
- Shortages of rare metals may curtail computer innovation
"...Supplies of indium, used in liquid-crystal displays, and of
hafnium, a critical element for next-generation semiconductors, could be
exhausted by 2017, according to a new report..."
http://www.informationweek.com/news/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=199703110
- Overfishing and overhunting
- Deforestation
- Environmental degradation due to high-tech farming
- Environmental degradation in Australia|
"The carbon dioxide emissions from Australian agriculture exceed
those produced by motor vehicles and all the rest of the transport
industry ... The simplest way for Australia to fulfill its stated
commitment to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions would be to
eliminate its cattle!"
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2005/02/20/1108834659145.html
THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERSHOOT - ENERGY DEPLETION
Energy crisis - resource depletion of energy-containing materials
"...A society's complexity is not a function of the total energy throughput,
but the ERoEI - Energy Returned on Energy Invested, or ROI in pure energy
economics terms."
THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERSHOOT - REDUCTION IN BIODIVERSITY
Biodiversity definition - a measure of the
complexity of ecosystems by the number of species and their interactions
Evidence
Factors in reduction of biodiversity
- Loss of habitat, largely through the expansion of agriculture
- Climate change, e.g. global warming
- Invasive species carried in ship ballast and air transport
- Over-exploitation of wildlife, e.g., overfishing,
overhunting
- The build-up of nutrients favoring a few "weed" species through
chemical fertilizers, sewage and air pollution
Consequences of biodiversity reduction
- Simplified ecostem may be less
productive
- Fewer new drugs, products available
from fewer species
- Effect on human psychology - world
seems less pleasant with low diversity (Biophilia)
Extinction - the (premature) end of a species
Introduced
and invasive species - species entering ecosystem via human action
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Introduced_species
Invasive species
attack ecosystem like computer viruses attack the Internet (both are "webs")
http://www.livescience.com/animalworld/050301_invasive_flea.html
- Sources
- Transport in ship ballast
- Transport by air cargo
- Deliberate introduction ("eco-engineering")
- Effects
- Organisms move into new environment without their "normal" predators and
parasites
- Native animals have no defense against new animals
- Rapid growth of invasive populations
- Reduction in biodiversity
- Ecosystem re-structures at a simpler level
- Long-term (1 million years) biodiversity returns
- Examples
 |
 |
 |
 |
| Kudzu (Southern US) |
Zebra Mussels (US) |
Nutria |
Sudden oak death fungus |
 |
 |
 |
|
| Nile Perch |
Goats |
Whitefly |
|
- Pepper tree
(Florida)
- Cane Toads,
Rabbits (Australia)
- Nile Perch (Africa)
Humans are the supreme example of an invasive species
Humans, not climate change, wiped out giant Australian animals
http://www.livescience.com/animalworld/070124_australian_megafauna.html
Epidemics - a special form of invasive species
- Sources
- high overall population (a place for invasive microbes to
grow)
- Clearing of rainforest land for agriculture (promotes
"species jumping")
- High population density in cities (easier people to people
jumps)
- Poor sanitation (particularly Third World cities)
- Fast air travel (spreads disease worldwide in just weeks)
- Over-use of antibiotics (promotes evolution of resistant
organisms)
- Energy efficiency (lower air turnover in airline cabins,
energy-efficient homes)
- Results
THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERSHOOT - RELEASE OF POLLUTING
MATERIALS INTO THE ENVIRONMENT
Definition - release of novel elements/compounds, or alteration of
existing matter cycles (carbon cycle, nitrogen cycle)
- Pollution from fertilizer
http://edugreen.teri.res.in/explore/water/health.htm
- Ocean acidification from C02 release (the same
stuff causing global warming)
"...'This problem will continue to affect the oceans
even if we stopped all carbon emissions now, and will continue for probably
centuries," says Dr Will Howard, a marine geologist at the Antarctic Climate
and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre in Hobart..."
http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/ocean-time-bomb/2007/09/11/1189276723526.html
- Toxic wastes produced by manufacturing
- Trace toxic compounds in water, food
- Consequences?
- "Peak Testosterone"
http://www.matthewsavinar.com/Archives/PeakTestosterone.html
-
Toxic chemicals blamed for the
disappearance of Arctic boys (twice as many girls as
boys being born, rise in fetal deaths of males)
"...Historically in large populations, it is
considered normal for the number of baby boys
slightly to outnumber girls in a trend believed to
compensate naturally for greater male mortality
rates.
But a peer-reviewed US study found an
unexpected drop in the proportion of boys born in
much of the northern hemisphere. The missing boys
would number more than 250,000 in the US and Japan,
using the gender ratio at the levels recorded up
until 1970.
The researchers suspect-ed that this linked
widespread exposure among pregnant women to
hormone-mimicking pollutants. But Danish scientists
examined 480 families in the Russian Arctic and
found high levels of the hormone-mimicking
pollutants in the blood of pregnant women, and twice
as many girls being born as boys..."
- Travison, TG, AB Araujo, AB O’Donnell, V Kupelian, JB McKinlay. 2007.
A population-level decline in serum testosterone levels in American
men.
Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism 92:196–202.
Summary at:
http://www.ourstolenfuture.org/NewScience/reproduction/2006/2006-1210travisonetal.html
- Number of baby boys being born begins to drop
in US and Japan as well (and a rise in male fetal death)
DeclinesInSexRatio.pdf
- Pollutants change "he" frogs into "she" frogs (industrial
pollutants are often estrogen mimics)
http://www.seedmagazine.com/news/2007/02/pollutants_change_he_frogs_int.php
- Lavender soap gives boys "man boobs" (estrogen mimics)
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Lavender+revolution:+plant+essences+linked+to+enlarged+breasts+in+boys-a0148185721
- Toxic materials affecting women
Women absorb 5 lbs per year of toxic chemicals - from their makeup
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=485704&in_page_id=1770
- Air pollution
- Nitrogen compounds (smog)
- Sulfur compounds (acid rain)
- Ethanol raises smog levels
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070418.wethanol18/BNStory/
- "Coal fog" over Asia
- Acidification of alpine ecosystems
- Carbon dioxide (see greenhouse gases, below)
- "Organic" farming may release more greenhouse gases than industrial
agriculture
"...Organic milk requires 80 per cent more
land and creates almost double the amount of
substances that could lead to acidic soil and "eutrophication"
- the pollution of water courses with excess
nutrients. The study found that producing
organic milk, which has higher levels of
nutrients and lower levels of pesticides, also
generates more carbon dioxide than conventional
methods - 1.23kg per litre compared to 1.06kg
per litre..."
http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article2283928.ece
- Nanoparticles (diesel exhaust)
- Chlorinated Flurocarbons (CFCS) (destroy ozone layer)
- Self-pollution
THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERSHOOT - GLOBAL WARMING
Definition - increasing the AVERAGE global temperature of the Earth by
altering the carbon cycle - too much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
A "new" global warming video - FROM 1958 (Frank Capra's
"Unchained Goddess")
http://www.alternet.org/blogs/video/56850/
Global warming declared "official" by 117 countries in 2007
http://www.livescience.com/environment/070201_ap_climate_report.html
Global warming is real, even if its sources are not completely understood
Interview with Elizabeth Kolbert
http://www.energybulletin.net/14778.html
EU chief supports vastly expanded use of nuclear power to combat global
warming
http://www.bloggernews.net/11330
Sources
- Carbon Dioxide - natural sources plus that released by burning fossil
fuels like coal and oil
- Agricultural Methane (from animal farts, agriculture, greenhouse gas)
- Humans have been tinkering with global warming (via agricultural methane) for
2,000 years
http://www.terradaily.com/news/climate-05zzzzs.html
- Change in land/water color, increasing heat absorbtion
- Irrigation in raises temperatures in California's Central
Valley
"...What was once dry,
light-colored soil that didn't absorb much solar warmth is now dark
and damp and "can absorb heat like a sponge in the day and then, at
night, release that heat into the atmosphere..."
http://www.livescience.com/environment/060119_valley_heat.html
- Reduction in particulate air pollution(!)
Effects of global warming
- Some areas heat up, others cool
- Rainfall patterns altered
- Ocean currents altered
- Climate change may cause economic "disaster" in 21st century
(economic Depression)
"...The Stern Review says that
climate change represents the greatest and widest-ranging market failure
ever seen. And on the basis of this intellectually rigorous and thorough
report, it is hard to disagree..."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6096594.stm
- But increased plant growth possible (more C02 acts like
nutrient, will allow higher yields in agriculture in areas not
otherwise destabilized)
http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO2ScienceB2C/subject/a/summaries/agriculture.jsp
- Weather becomes more violent with greater amounts of
"atmospheric energy"
Global warming has happened before...
- Greenhouse gases and global warming
-
Ancient global warming cycles
http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/temperature/
-
Global warming is superimposed on larger trend of
global cooling during last 2 million years (major cause of
forest->grassland transition in Africa which spurred the evolution of the human
race) - chart is read RIGHT to LEFT
http://www.ace.mmu.ac.uk/Resources/gcc/5-3-1.html
-
The "long hot summer" - the last interglacial era (Holocene) in
which civilization has emerged (completely modern humans had already
been around for 30,000 years)
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,7-2046190,00.html
-
Close-up of temperatures in the era just before the Holocene
A close-up of the end of the Pleistocene and the beginning of the
Holocene - civilization appeared "after the ice" and was tied to a
dramatic episode of global warming. From After The Ice: A Global
Human History by Steven Mithen (2004), Harvard University Press.
- Extreme close-up plot of Holocene temperatures
http://www.clearlight.com/~mhieb/WVFossils/ice_ages.html
Compiled by R.S. Bradley and J.A. Eddy based on
J.T. Houghton et al., Climate Change: The IPCC Assessment, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, 1990 and published in EarthQuest, vo.
1, 1991. Courtesy of Thomas Crowley,
Remembrance of Things Past: Greenhouse Lessons from the Geologic
Record
- Recent trends shown above
- Global warming - the "long hot summer" of the last 10,000
years during which civilization emerged
- Global cooling - the "Little Ice Age" 1300-1800 wiped out Viking
colonies
- Global warming - 1800-2005
Current global warming
Your individual contribution to global warming
"...even in the US, autos provide on 20% of greenhouse gas emission - the
majority comes from the processing and transport of the food we eat...A
typical UK family of four would, each year, emit 4.2 tonnes of CO2 from
their house, 4.4 tonnes from their car, and 8 tonnes from the production,
processing, packaging and distribution of the food they eat. The US levels
are higher."
How your wardrobe (ESPECIALLY "NATURAL"
COTTON) has massive effects on global warming
"...The Organic
Trade Association says that producing one pair of regular cotton jeans takes
three-quarters of a pound of fertilizers and pesticides. Each T-shirt takes
one-third of a pound..."
http://www.slate.com/id/2164128/fr/flyout
Global warming spikes may come just before Ice Ages
CONSEQUENCES OF OVERSHOOT
Our current ("super Malthusian?") cycle
James Lovelock (creator of the "Gaia" hypothesis) says we're past the
point of no return
http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article338878.ece
The Coming Dark Age
http://www.darkage.fsnet.co.uk
THE RISE AND FALL OF ALIEN CIVILIZATIONS
If other civilizations follow similar boom/bust timelines, we may be able
to say something about the probability of being visited by an alien race
This "Easter Island" Earth - what "Collapse" tells us about the
probability of alien civilizations
http://www.astrobio.net/news/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=1930&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0
- The Fermi paradox - if intelligent
civilizations are common, the universe is so old that we should have been
visited thousands or millions of times by alien races - where are they?
- The Drake Equation (why there CANNOT
be alien races at our level of technological development) - good discussion
of lifetime of civilizations and how this impacts the likelihood of them
contacting us, colonizing the galaxy based on biological/technolgical
theories.
http://www.astrobio.net/news/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=1745&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0
|
N = R x Fp
x Ne x fl x fi x fc x L |
| N = number of
extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy that want to
communicate |
| R = rate of star formation
in the galaxy (a few per year) |
| Fp = fraction of stars with planetary systems (~50%) |
| Ne = average number of habitable planets around those
stars (more than two) |
| fi = percentage of habitable planets that actually
develop life (???????) |
| fl = precentage of life-bearing planets evolving
intelligent life (???????) |
| fc = fraction able and willing to communicate
(????????) |
| L = lifetime of technological civilizations (??a few
million years, technological 10% of time??) |
Result: either intelligent life is extremely rare, or we are in a zoo
- however, there CANNOT be significant numbers of aliens at our
technological level - the aliens are either 10 million years behind, or 10
million years ahead.
- Star-Maker (1930s-era future history of the
rise & fall of civilizations in the universe)
http://www.daviddarling.info/encyclopedia/S/Stapledon.html
http://www.sfsite.com/09a/sm88.htm
The paradox of today's faith in eternal progress
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2099-1813695,00.html
"...Of course, the end of the world has been promised by Jews, Christians,
Muslims and assorted crazies with sandwich boards for as long as there has been
a human world to end. But those doomsdays were the product of faith; reason
always used to say the world will continue. The point about the new apocalypse
is that this situation has reversed. Now faith tells us we will be able
to solve our problems; reason says we have no answers now and none are
likely in the future..."
GO TO WEEK 09
